Cuomo has received friendlier welcomes at a couple of other mosque visits, but there hasn’t been much indication that his tactics are working with the wider electorate, continuing what has been a dismal campaign year for him. This spring, polls showed Cuomo with a seemingly substantial lead in the Democratic primary, on track to complete a remarkable comeback after resigning in disgrace from the governor’s office some four years earlier. He was lulled into a lethargic effort and made few retail campaign appearances. Mamdani’s late surge clobbered Cuomo by almost 13 points.
He promised things would be different in the general election, where he is running as an independent. Cuomo did initially beef up his social media presence and in-person schedule. But the live events dwindled through September, and some of his attempts to create viral videos were awkward. “Andrew doesn’t listen to anyone,” a senior ally says. “He wouldn’t do anything that he didn’t already know how to do.” Instead, he’s worked the phones in an effort to raise money and reel in endorsements from labor unions and mainstream elected officials. “You’ve got a candidate who has lost his way,” a second longtime Cuomo insider says.
He did get some good news when, in late September, the incumbent mayor, Eric Adams, dropped out of the field. A Cuomo aide claims the campaign’s internal polling shows that the bulk of Adams’s support will shift to Cuomo—though even that would only add a mere 5%, not enough to close the gap with Mamdani. So one focus immediately is peeling support away from Curtis Sliwa, the Republican nominee, in hopes that Sliwa will step aside and give Cuomo a head-to-head matchup with Mamdani. The Cuomo aide admits that it amounts to hitting a triple bank shot: “The pieces have to fall the right way. But is there a path? Yes, there is.”
Before Adams left the race, most polls put Mamdani at around 45% in a four-person field—a surprisingly low number for a Democratic mayoral nominee in a deeply blue city, leading some New York operatives to jokingly refer to Mamdani as “Z 45.” That underwhelming figure suggests a substantial number of potential general election voters still aren’t sold on Mamdani, and it gives Cuomo an opening, especially since an early-September New York Times poll showed him just four points behind Mamdani, among likely voters, in a one-on-one matchup.
One crucial factor will be whether Mamdani is able to repeat his spring success in turning out a significant number of young voters. “Everyone’s been like, ‘It doesn’t look like you guys are having as much fun.’ Yeah, this isn’t as much fun,” a best Mamdani strategist says. “There’s something far more magical about taking on the establishment than trying to coalesce it into your coalition. But I feel more confident than I have ever felt.”
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