A recent study predicts a possible surge in tuberculosis cases worldwide, with more than 2 million deaths and over 10 million infections projected by 2030.
The research, published in the journal PLOS, examines the impact of recent funding cuts to the U.S. Agency for International Development, which provides medical care, food, and other support to developing nations.
“The loss of U.S. funding endangers global TB control efforts … and potentially puts millions of lives at risk,” the study said. In February, USAID’s staff was reduced from over 10,000 to just 290, raising concerns that critical tuberculosis programs may not be able to function effectively.
The researchers modeled three scenarios. In the best-case scenario, where countries restore TB services within three months, there could be 630,000 new cases and 99,000 deaths over five years. A moderate disruption lasting a year could lead to 1.66 million cases and 268,600 deaths. The worst-case scenario, involving long-term service reductions in 26 high-burden countries, could result in 10.67 million new cases and 2,243,700 deaths.
The countries most at risk include Afghanistan, Angola, Bangladesh, Cameroon, Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Madagascar, Mozambique, Myanmar, Nepal, Nigeria, Pakistan, Peru, the Philippines, South Africa, Tanzania, Thailand, Uganda, Ukraine, Vietnam, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.
The study adds, “While some nations may adapt, short-term disruptions will severely impact vulnerable populations.”
Tuberculosis is also a concern in the United States. In January, Kentucky reported its largest TB outbreak ever, with 68 active cases and 107 latent infections, according to the Kentucky Division of Public Health.
Latent infections remain in the body without symptoms but can become active if the immune system is weakened.
TB symptoms, caused by the bacterium Mycobacterium tuberculosis, include persistent cough, chest pain, and coughing up blood. Treatment requires specific antibiotics for several months, and untreated cases can be fatal.
The study highlights the urgent need for global health funding and services to prevent a major TB crisis.
Without immediate action, millions of lives worldwide could be at risk from this preventable and treatable disease.
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