Hurricanes like Melissa thrive on hot ocean waters to strengthen, and sea-surface temperatures in the Caribbean are running nearly 3 degrees warmer than average, with sea-surface temperatures ranging from 85 to 87 degrees. A hurricane only needs at least 80-degree waters to intensify. This scenario provided more than ample fuel for Melissa to transition into a massive force of nature, especially with wind shear dropping dramatically as the storm slowly crawled through the Caribbean.
The bigger picture shows that tropical systems are undergoing extreme rapid intensification more immediately than ever recorded. This is simply the result of global warming, especially when the localized weather patterns favor tropical development.
According to Climate Central, exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures have increased Melissa’s destructiveness by up to 50 percent. Warmer oceans from human-caused climate change are producing more severe rain and flooding impacts from tropical systems.
Reaching an atmospheric pressure of 893 millibars, Melissa immediately ranks as the fourth strongest hurricane ever recorded for that metric. It’s a threshold only seen by six other hurricanes in the Atlantic. Only Hurricanes Wilma (2005) Gilbert (1988), and the “Labor Day Hurricane” of 1935 were stronger in terms of pressure.
Below was a list of the strongest hurricanes on record based on air pressure before today, followed by the most costly. Fortunately, Melissa doesn’t pose a threat to the United States, but Jamaica, parts of Cuba, Haiti, and the Bahamas are in for extensive to catastrophic damage over the next few days.
All it takes is just one terrible storm to make a hurricane season memorable, for the worst of reasons. Hurricane Melissa is that monster storm, soon to make a 90-degree, direct strike on the island nation of Jamaica and unload its full force instead of being sideswiped — maximizing storm surge, flash flooding, and wind speeds. Think of a head-on car crash versus a car getting broadsided. It’s an awful analogy to think of, but this is a terrible situation for folks in Jamaica.
When it is all said and done, Melissa will go down as the strongest hurricane ever to make landfall on Jamaica. With rain totals exceeding 3 feet in some areas and exceptionally strong winds, this behemoth will leave areas not only flooded, but will also completely level structures and forever alter some of the southern coastline.
Earlier this year, Hurricane Erin underwent extreme rapid intensification, with wind speeds exploding 85 miles per hour in 24 hours — compared to Melissa’s 70 miles per hour in under 18 hours. Erin also became one of the largest hurricanes on record, and we’re fortunate that it didn’t make landfall.
This hurricane season has been a season full of extremes instead of volume. Erin was the fourth-earliest Category 5 hurricane on record. Meanwhile, Melissa is the fourth new hurricane to turn Category 5 in a season. Mitch was a Category 5 hurricane in 1998, and Hattie reached Category 5 status on Halloween in 1961.
The only Category 5 hurricane in November was in 1932, named “Camaguey”.
The Atlantic hurricane season ends Nov. 30.
Ken Mahan can be reached at ken.mahan@globe.com. Follow him on Instagram @kenmahantheweatherman.
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