A nor’easter develops to our south and will head up the coast for Sunday. The center of low pressure remains offshore and south of Long Island but we will see significant impacts Sunday through possibly Tuesday. The peak of the storm will be Sunday night-Monday evening with the heaviest rain and strongest wind.
Timing & rain
The scattered showers hold off until late morning for the south coast on Sunday. The Cape & Islands start to experience the increasing winds Sunday morning, with ferry cancellations expected Sunday through Tuesday. The rain spreads into Boston 1 p.m. to 4 p.m. as a high-pressure system retreats to the north a bit.
Foliage forecast
Northern New England will see a dry but cloudy day for fall leaf peeping, with scattered showers and light breezes only through Monday. Meanwhile, southern New England gets the rain and wind and lots of leaf drop as we approach peak color this week. The rain will be off and on, pivoting in from the low pressure centered near Long Island on Monday.
The storms slowly moves away from the coastline on Tuesday taking the showers with it, though the rain lingers across the Cape & Islands for Tuesday morning, drying off late evening. Farther north and west we’ll see 0.25” to 0.5” of light rain in Vermont or New Hampshire and coastal Maine for Monday. While Boston and southeastern New England will get 1-3” of heavy rainfall through Tuesday. Some higher rainfall possible for Cape Cod & Nantucket as the showers linger on Tuesday morning.
How much rain will Boston get with this storm?
Wind impacts
Sunday afternoon will become gusty already with wind from the east, northeast. Looking at 20-30 mph inland, 30-40 mph at the coast. Then as more waves of rain head in from the south, the winds increase. Gusts 30-40 inland and 40-50 mph along the coast. With outer Cape Ann and Cape Cod to the Vineyard and Nantucket getting up to 60 mph. This strong wind continues overnight into all day Monday. The wind slows down a bit Monday night, still staying loud at the coast with continued leaf drop. Isolated outages and damage will also be possible. Secure those Halloween decorations too.
Coastal concerns
The wind ramps up our wave heights by Sunday with 5-10 ft waves late Sunday. High tide is around 4pm and some splash over and pockets of minor flooding can be expected. Monday’s 5pm high tide brings us minor to pockets of moderate coastal flooding and erosion at the height of the storm. Waves by then will be 10-20 feet. Offshore waves 15-25 ft and dangerous for mariners with Gale Warnings for outer waters. Some splashover will occur during the Tuesday 6pm high tide as the storm pulls away, with the wind more northerly.
10-day outlook
Our early week coastal storm moves away for midweek as we see some sun and temps around 60. The Head of the Charles starts off dry and seasonable Friday and Saturday, though a few showers move in for Sunday. Stay tuned for updates to the forecast.
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