Over the past decade or so, sea-surface temperatures have ranged between 2 and 4 degrees above average, warming the atmosphere enough to hold coastal precipitation as rain instead of snow. In the map below, you can see that the Gulf of Maine is running noticeably above average as we close out October.
Boston doesn’t see much snow during the fall in the first place, but it surely can snow. Boston usually sees just over an inch of snow by the end of November, with places like Milton and Worcester averaging around 3.5 inches.
I dove into the data to see how Boston and the region fared in terms of fall snow over the years, and if there are any trends worth highlighting.
For starters, the last time there was measurable snowfall during meteorological fall (September-November) in the city occurred on Oct. 30, 2020, when 4.3 inches of snow fell in a single day. Around 6 inches in the Worcester area. This also made Halloween trick-or-treating a bit messy across New England.
Since then, fall snow in Boston has been nonexistent, and the general trend is consistently decreasing snow across New England.
Take a quick look below at autumn snow totals in Boston since records began in 1892. There have been only three seasons since 2006 in which an inch or more of snow fell. And as a whole, the average autumn snow total has been cut in half since records began, a result of a warming atmosphere over the decades, paired with warmer seas.
I also took a look at Burlington, Vt., the largest city farthest away from the coast in New England. Here, too, we saw virtually no snow last fall, and below-average amounts the prior three. The last time there was a significant snowy fall was in 2019.
Overall in Burlington? The trend continues to decrease, with the seasonal average falling by more than an inch over the past century.
The simple equation here is that you need freezing temperatures to produce snowfall. The number of days where the temperature reaches 32 degrees or below, has decreased significantly across the entire region in the fall.
Boston, for example, has seen below-average or exactly the average number of freezing fall days in nine of the past 10 years.
This fall, the average temperature across New England has been 1 to 3 degrees warmer than average in all six New England states. This may explain why the first snow on Mount Washington arrived a few weeks late and why there may be little to no snow in other areas of New England this fall.
Sure, higher-elevated mountains will likely see snow near the end of October and throughout November, but I’d be willing to bet that whatever racks up will be below the average this season.
Beyond fall, we’re also seeing less snowfall during the winter months. Boston typically racks up 33 inches of snow between December and February. (Of course, there’s March and April to consider, too, but those monthly totals are popular lower, as well.)
Boston hasn’t seen above-average snowfall in winter since 2021-22, one of only two winters in the past decade when there was more snow than normal.
Taking a look at the total number of winter weather alerts issued from the NWS Boston office for winters dating back to 2005, the last two winters have had the fewest since the winter of 2006.
For snow lovers, the good news is that a weak La Niña is in the forecast this winter and could bump up snow totals this year, but that would be likely away from the coast. Usually, Boston and areas south will end up with a little less snow during a La Niña year.
Of course, one nor’easter can tip the scale any which way, and La Niña does have a history of producing more coastal storms. It’ll just come down to whether the air temperature is at the sweet spot for snow to fall instead of sleet and rain.
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Ken Mahan can be reached at ken.mahan@globe.com. Follow him on Instagram @kenmahantheweatherman.
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