New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox prediction, pick for Sunday 8/24/25

Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for Sunday night’s baseball game between the Yankees and the Red Sox.

Probables line up as Carlos Rodón for the Yankees and Dustin May for Boston, a power lefty versus a power sinker. Yankee Stadium boosts homers, especially to the pull side, and tonight stays warm and sticky, which helps carry. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Sunday baseball game between the Yankees and the Red Sox.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

I respect the park boost but still grade the mound edge to New York. Rodón’s four-seam/slider combo plays in this park when he’s ahead, and Boston’s current heart lacks lefty thump. Aaron Judge’s 2025 profile remains video-game stuff: .469 wOBA, .457 xwOBA, 25.6% barrel rate, and 56.5% hard-anthem rate. That level of damage punishes even quality sinkers that leak up, the exact danger zone for May. On Boston’s side, Connor Wong’s bat-to-ball has cratered, with a .289 xwOBA and only a 3.8% barrel rate over 294 plate appearances—yet Wong has delivered some of the most clutch hits in the lineup over the past 10 days, especially against lefties. New York’s lineup depth stretches innings around Judge, stressing any early May turbulence. Trent Grisham owns a double-digit walk rate and below-league chase, feeding Judge premium RBI spots. Roman Anthony’s xwOBA versus four-seamers outpaces results, while slider whiff remains exploitable. Trevor Story’s chase rate spikes against lefties, and his ground-ball tilt suppresses pull-side lift here. He’s been outstanding, but he may have trouble tonight.

The Red Sox counterpunch is real. May can deaden launch with sinker/cutter tilt and snatch quick outs if he commands arm-side. Yankee Stadium’s home-run inflation and warm air invite a one-swing equalizer. Cody Bellinger’s sinker run worth trend shows arm-side leak gets punished, underscoring May’s margin for error. I still trust Rodón’s side of the ledger against this version of Boston. New York’s everyday engine carries elite underlying performance beyond Judge’s thunder. Don’t forget that Jazz Chisholm Jr. delivered a 140 wRC+ at the break and fits the park’s right-field geometry after adjusting his approach.

Red Sox vs. Yankees pick, best bet

Market and matchup stay aligned. The Yankees have been the league’s pace car offensively, and they’ve built a leadoff-to-middle conveyor belt that converts traffic. The rate band around -155 reflects that edge without overcharging for the venue boost. Total at 8.5 bakes in park factor and two above-average bullpens, so I avoid paying for late variance. Given Rodón versus a righty-leaning order and Judge’s game-by-game win probability lift, I press the advantage. Final bet: Yankees moneyline at standard juice—right around -160 on DraftKings.

Edge clarity wins tickets. Rodón’s miss profile fits this Boston lineup; May’s ground-ball script collapses if he falls behind Judge. Judge’s barrel rate and xwOBA create a constant leverage tax on Red Sox mistakes, while lefty/lefty contact quality suppresses Boston’s run ceiling. Park boosts carry both ways, but New York’s bats weaponize it better, and the weather adds just enough carry to punish misfires. I ride the superior run creation, the cleaner starter, and the more punishing middle. Yankees moneyline.