There’s still plenty to unfold with the developing storm pattern, but major forecast models right today agree that a coastal storm, namely a nor’easter, will form this week off the Carolinas and progress north along the East Coast, eventually impacting Southern New England late Sunday and into Monday.
This means that New England may see its first nor’easter of the fall and winter season, bringing us heavy rain and strong winds beginning Sunday night and lasting into much of Monday. A nor’easter does not necessarily mean snow, but the wind can get rather gusty from the northeast, reaching 30 to 50 mph.
The atmosphere will mimic the classic nor’easter setup below, with the core of the storm most likely stalling just south of New England after bringing heavy rains to the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic.
The main question is whether New England will miss out on the most intense rain and wind from this nor’easter.
The interesting part is that a dominant high-pressure system will sit just north of New England and will try to block the coastal storm from pushing entirely through our region. This is referred to as a ”Rex block,“ in which high pressure typically sets up directly north of an incoming system and usually slows the storm’s progression or bumps it away entirely.
It will all come down to how strong this coastal storm actually becomes, which we will have a clearer picture of by Friday. But taking a look at the GFS and the Euro forecast models, it does appear that Southern New England will see some rounds of rainfall and gusty 30- to 50-mph winds beginning late Sunday evening and lasting through much of Monday.
Below you can see the GFS model showing the coastal low stalling, just south of New England, with rain bands on the northern side pushing into New England Sunday night and continuing into Monday.
The Euro, which is the most reliable when it comes to coastal storms like this, shows a similar scenario unfolding. High-pressure settled to the north, pushing against the incoming storm and stalling the system just south of New England, with areas like Boston, Providence, Hartford, and southern Maine and New Hampshire seeing rainfall.
Forecast rain and gusty winds
As of today, we don’t see heavy rainfall in the forecast, but the main concern here will be the strong gusty winds. Remember, with a strong high-pressure system to the north and an incoming storm to the south, the pressure gradient will be rather high, and therefore, I can see gusts reach near or above 50 mph for parts of southeastern New England and Cape Cod. Boston may see wind gusts exceeding 40 mph.
Here’s a closer look at the forecast wind gusts across New England Sunday evening as the storm approaches. Parts of the Cape, southern Rhode Island, and Southeastern Massachusetts may reach 50 mph or even higher. This forecast will likely change a bit, but as of right today, it looks like we’re in for some gusty conditions.
A long-term model suggests that the heaviest rain will occur Sunday night, with some areas seeing at least a half inch of rain along the southern periphery of New England during the overnight hours. Flooding isn’t expected with this storm.
Remember, there is plenty that will play out over the next few days, but seeing this consistency this far out makes it more likely to come to fruition. Global Weather HQ will continue to monitor the system over the next few days and keep you posted with the new.
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Ken Mahan can be reached at ken.mahan@globe.com. Follow him on Instagram @kenmahantheweatherman.
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