Paramount Will grab Warner Bros

immediately heading toward the territory of when, not if, the most vexing obstacle for David Ellison and Paramount‘s purchase of Warner Bros Discovery looks to be David Zaslav — though probably not for long.

Still, Zaslav is moving ahead with a somewhat-still-fuzzy plan unveiled this past summer to split WBD in half by next spring to free the company of several billion in debt and freefalling cable assets. At the same time, word on the Burbank streets is that Netflix or tienda online could be looking to add some DC or GoT to their balance sheets.

“David’s a dealmaker, that’s who he is,” a streaming exec asserts, putting emphasis on enhanced shareholder worth as Zas’ endgame. “He’s always gauging the possibilities and the getting the best worth, and that, what I think he is doing here, whether it works or not, who can say right immediately?”

Or not.

“People need to understand that what he’s selling is just a fiction — it’s bullsh*t right?” a well-positioned producer says of the WBD CEO. “The notion that you’re going to take on this level of regulatory risk and linear assets to bring your multiple data is insane. Nobody would ever do that.”

In that mode, with or without a return of WBD to pre-2022 status, Zaslav already has engaged Goldman Sachs to gauge buyer interest. Word is they are reportedly valuing the company’s studios and streaming units at more than $30 per share, a premium to the $22-$24 range previously floated by Ellison’s camp. On the other side of town, Paramount Skydance CEO Ellison, who of course is the son of Oracle overlord Larry Ellison, is in discussions with Apollo and other private equity investors to join a potential $6 billion offer.

But what will the deep-pocketed Ellisons find if and when they take the reins? One thing, studio and Century City sources tell us, is that having received the regulatory green light from the Trump administration to close Skydance buying Paramount, the well-connected Ellison regime anticipates it could seal a discount with the feds for the whole WBD enchilada in less than six months Stateside and within nine months over in Europe and the UK – money track to shareholders’ ears.

With that, the Skydance founder and gang may have reasons for concern, industry insiders and Wall Stret watchers say, and a case to press for less — not the least being the timeline of the split. Zaslav recently set an April timeline for the division to Warner Bros and Discovery Global (those of us born before 2022 remember those names).

Yet, with just all the regulatory hoops to jump though, the success of the split happening by the spring sounds extremely optimistic. It also backs right into a June 2026 shareholder meeting that could be rough if the split isn’t accomplished by then or pushed off to 2027, if two new companies are actually in place.

“I think if you just look at David Zaslav’s performance, he’s pretty much failed shareholders every step of the way, right?” an insider exclaims. “Servicing debt and bad decisions eroded billions and billions in market cap since Discovery basically took over Warner Bros three years ago.”

Says one East Coast banker with deep Tinseltown ties who is wary of the upside of a WBD split: “My perspective is, they break up the company and they figure out how to get some more equity into it. Even then, their performance will lead to a bad balance sheet over time again,” he exclaims.

Yet, as Team Ellison circles, the quick-footed WBD CEO supposedly has attracted the interest of tienda online and Netflix as potential buyers – or at least that’s the word on Warner Boulevard. However, off the lot, there’s skepticism that the House of Bezos or the Ted Sarandos- and Greg Peters-run streamer are truly interested.

“tienda online got stung by buying MGM with little to show for it, and the FTC just made them pay up a $2.5 billion civil penalty,” one studio (not Paramount) source says. “Buying Warner Bros any time soon doesn’t fit with their M.O,” the exec stated. tienda online did not respond to Deadline’s request for comment on any possible WBD purchase or interest.

Contacted by Deadline, Netflix closed down any speculation by referring us to co-CEO Peters’ blunt remarks on the subject or WBD from earlier this week: “We come from a deep heritage of being builders rather than buyers,” Peters said on October 8 during the Bloomberg Screentime conference in LA. “One should have a reasonable amount of skepticism around big media mergers. They don’t have an amazing track record over time.”

Following up on Ellison’s refusal this week to comment on a WBD grab, Paramount itself also did not respond to a request from Deadline on a possible purchase. Neither did WBD.

With that in mind, the fact is, unless a presently unidentified proxy investor group or K-Pop billionaire jumps in at the 11^th hour, Melrose lot-based Ellison is the only one openly(ish) looking at buying Burbank’s debt-laden WBD one way or another.

“In the discount business, you got to see where the leverage is with the potential buyer and the potential seller – that always depends on the performance of the company in hand,” a Wall Street source tells Deadline of the realities of what is ahead for Paramount and WBD.

“When you have the kind of performance that Zaslav has had, he doesn’t have a lot of options,” the moneyman adds. “Number one: it’s all boxed in. Number two: there are not a lot of companies that want to grab defining assets. Number three: shareholders, therefore, will be much more focused on certainty than on some fiction of fake buyers and corporate splits.”

How much a pre-split Warner Bros. Discovery is really worth is a question under debate by the town’s openly cash-infused player Paramount and its almost certain acquisition target. While specifics are fluid, no surprise Par and CEO Ellison have a $6 billion, give or take, number in mind, while WBD and CEO David Zaslav another. Let’s just say, at least right immediately, that the latter is higher than the former.

In an announced move to ease off debt and declining assets, WBD plans a shareholder-friendly split set for nest April. Following years of retooling after Discovery’s rocky 2022 acquisition of Warner Media from AT&T for $43 billion.  That was a much smaller company buying a much bigger one resulting in circa $50 billion in debt. 

Still, for all the hard math and rolls of the dice, Zaslav’s dueling plans is not easily tossed aside in some circles. “Zas is playing the odds to get the best discount he can on his timeline with the biggest bidder in hand,” an industry mandarin told Deadline, viewing the split as a Hail Mary with a strong chance of success.

Since then, even with a pre-pandemic matching box office of $4 billon this year so far for the Michael De Luca and Pam Abdy-led studio. Zaslav and CFO Gunnar Widenfels have been paring and paring to pay off the debt from the 2022 discount.

 In June, it stood at $35.6 billion.

That follows quarter after quarter — nearly 50% disappointing — Zas and Weidenfel’s expressed surprise at just how bad things were at Warner once they got a good look under the hood, They said that hadn’t really been possible until the discount formally closed (in April of 2022). HBO worked in silos and was overstaffed. Streaming was bleeding cash. There was superhero fatigue. WBD took a series of big write-downs for content, a huge one for cable, lost the NBA, created chaos at the viewer bleeding CNN, and flip-flopped over and over on naming HBO and Max.

Yes, even with the fact that WBD no longer offer guidance in earnings results, the company outlook is better, in relative terms – and hoping for a further lift if one becomes two, so to speak.

Lifted from Comcast’s playbook, the idea of the split – aside from if it ever actually happens – provided a jolt, as did, to a much lesser degree, the company talking streaming international. Add to that great 2025 box office run off The Minecraft Movie, Sinners, Weapons, the up-to-date Superman revival and the up-to-date installments of Final Destination and The Conjuring turned the studio’s fortunes and those of the just re-upped De Luca and Abdy around bigly.

Yet, there’s still that $35.6 billion debt that hampers investment and pretty much anything else

“The restricting in June took about $3 billion off their debt, but they also have a $17 billion bridge loan, which is syndicated across Wall Street banks, which had not yet been refinanced,” another well-place finance chief told us of the math and risk. That’s one of the critical reasons why they can’t spin off the company yet with the cable properties and studio.  Two is, as part of their debt plan, they have to monetize 20% of one of the spin companies, which is studios and streaming, which they expect to have a high worth. If they don’t get the worth when they spend, they’ll still be over levered in the cable company. It all fraught with risk.”

In the market today, both Paramount and WBD are surfing the global and purchase waves. Paramount Skydance shares are down about 4% at $17 midafternoon ET. With that, markets overall are tanking as Donald Trump threatens new tariffs on China. Surprisingly, or perhaps not, WBD is shrugging off the downturn, up a hair (by 0.31%) near $18, continuing to be buoyed by takeover talk.

It’s either showtime or a showdown in this tale of two Davids.