The Boston Red Sox know they’ll be playing the first game of a best-of-three playoff series on Tuesday on the road. They just don’t yet know where to book their travel.
Sunday marks game 162 of the regular season, and comparatively speaking, the Red Sox don’t have everything to play for. That distinction belongs to the Cincinnati Reds and New York Mets. But the results of Sunday’s games could still be quite impactful on Boston’s playoff outcomes.
So how does it all shake out? We’re here to explain every possible scenario.
There are two main issues to sort through on Sunday: who wins the American League East, and how the wild-card seeds shake out around that result. It’s down to the New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays, both teams the Red Sox could easily see in round one.
If the Yankees beat the Baltimore Orioles and the Blue Jays lose to the Tampa Bay Rays on Sunday, it’s New York’s division title. Anything else (both teams win, both teams lose, or Blue Jays win/Yankees lose), and Toronto claims its first division title.
Whichever team loses becomes the first wild-card team and hosts a best-of-three against the second wild-card team, which may or may not be Boston. Here’s how that works:
If the Red Sox beat the Detroit Tigers on Sunday, they’re the second wild-card team. If they lose, they can drop to the third wild-card spot and play the Cleveland Guardians — but only if the Guardians defeat the Texas Rangers in their final regular-season game.
If Detroit wins and Cleveland loses, Detroit claims the AL Central title, Cleveland becomes the third wild-card team and heads to Comerica Park to play another divisional showdown in playoff format, and the Red Sox stay entrenched in that second spot and play a division rival.
So if we’re ranking scenarios by probability, it’s probably 50-60% that the Red Sox go to New York, 20-30% they go to Toronto, and another 20-30% they go to Cleveland. More experienced statisticians than this author (whose stats minor as an undergrad has not been put to good use) can work out the exact numbers.
Wherever they are, the Red Sox will send ace Garrett Crochet to the mound on Tuesday against another team’s best, and they will feel confident about their chances to win their first playoff series since 2021.
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