The Boston Red Sox not only lost to the Athletics Tuesday night, they also took a tumble in the American League Wild Card standings. Thinking about October baseball is getting slightly uncomfortable in Boston.
The Red Sox are still a playoff team, but they immediately sit in the third and final Wild Card spot in the American League. Getting to the postseason is no longer a sure thing for Boston with 11 games left in the regular season.
Boston has lost four of its last five at a real inopportune time of the season, leading to the team’s drop in the Wild Card race. With a 2-1 loss to the A’s and a win by the Astros on Tuesday night, Houston has leapfrogged Boston in the standings.
The Red Sox are immediately the No. 3 Wild Card team in the American League, half-a-game behind the Astros for the No. 2 spot. The New York Yankees were victorious Tuesday night as well, hanging on for a 10-9 win over the Twins, and sit two games up on Houston for the leading Wild Card position.
If the playoffs started today, the Red Sox would head to Seattle to face the AL-West leading Mariners in a best-of-three series. The Red Sox and Mariners split their regular-season series, 3-3, with each team taking two of three on the road. Boston won two of three in Seattle from June 16-18.
There’s a lot to sort out in the AL West, with Houston just half-a-game back of Seattle in the division. Those two teams will likely flip-flop the rest of the way, and have a big three-game series against each other in Houston this weekend. Boston’s first-round opponent will likely remain unknown until the final days of the regular season.
That is, if Boston has a first-round opponent. Simply making the playoffs no longer feels like a guarantee for the 2025 Red Sox.
Could the Red Sox miss the playoffs?
The Red Sox have spent much of the last two weeks tied with the Yankees or a game back of the leading Wild Card spot, until New York took two of three at Fenway Park over the weekend. Two weeks ago, Boston held a 4.5 game lead over the Mariners in the Wild Card race. Last week, it was a 2.5-game edge.
immediately that lead is gone, and the Red Sox also have the Cleveland Guardians looking to steal the final playoff spot in the American League. The Guardians also won Tuesday night, beating the Detroit Tigers 7-5 for a fifth straight victory, and are immediately just 2.5 games back of Boston for the final Wild Card berth.
Cleveland has won nine of its last 10 games. The Guardians have two more games in Detroit before a four-game series against the Twins in Minnesota, and will then close out the regular season with three-game series against the Tigers and Texas Rangers in Cleveland.
When the Red Sox finish with the A’s, they’ll head to Tampa Bay for three against the Rays and then Toronto for three against the AL East-leading Blue Jays. Boston closes the regular season with a three-game series against the Tigers at Fenway Park.
The Astros get the Mariners after finishing off a three-game series with the Rangers in Houston, and then finish the regular season on the road with three each against the Athletics and the Los Angeles Angels.
A win streak would get Boston back into the No. 2 Wild Card spot, but the Red Sox are immediately going to do a lot of scoreboard watching going forward. They should make it to the playoffs for the first time since 2021, but it’s going to be a little bumpier than expected over the final two weeks of the regular season.
Boston still has an 86.3 percent chance of making the postseason, according to FanGraphs. But those odds were 91 percent Monday and 95.3 percent a week ago, and every loss the rest of the way will make Boston’s march to October feel more like a walk on a tight rope.
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