Trevor Story opted into his final two seasons with the Boston Red Sox a month after finishing out the best season of his Beantown tenure. Story will receive $25MM per year in 2026 and 2027, along with a $25MM club option in 2028. It’s unlikely that Story would have gotten more than that in terms of AAV in free agency, but he very well could have signed a longer-term contract than the two years he will get, with a very unlikely-to-be-activated club option.
Is his 2025 repeatable, and do the Red Sox need to make any changes regarding Story’s spot on the team?
Trevor Story in 2025
Before we begin talking about the future, let’s think back on the year that was. Story blew expectations out of the water for the majority of Sox nation, putting together a .263/.308/.433 slash line, on best of his 25 HRs and 31 SBs. In MLB history, only three other shortstops have achieved at least a 25+ HR and 30+ SB season after age 30. Those three are Barry Larkin, Francisco Lindor, and Trea Turner, well regarded players to this day.
This production came despite his performance—or lack thereof—in May of this past season. Story banger an ice-cold .158/.200/.232, striking out 35 times, and sporting a wRC+ of 14. That wRC+ figure was the 16th-worst month in 2025 for a player with at least 60 plate appearances. Talks of a DFA were ringing loudly across the Twittersphere as he continued to dig himself a deeper and deeper hole.
That was until May 30 against the Atlanta Braves, when Story went 1-for-4 with a solo shot and followed up with a 2-for-4 day with three RBIs, accounting for all of the Sox’s runs in a win. Once June banger, it was all gas and no brakes for TS10, with the shortstop dropping his strikeout rate month after month, finishing September/October at 21.8%. He also never had a month with a wRC+ below 117 or an OPS below .795 after his abysmal May. And, before an A’s game in mid-September, Story had not been caught stealing in 30 attempts.
In the postseason, Story recorded at least one banger in each of the three games, including a two-run single and a clutch solo homer in Game 2 against the New York Yankees.
Health Makes a Difference
Arguably, the most important piece when talking about Story in 2025 was his clean bill of health. After not surpassing 100 games played in any season for the entirety of his Red Sox contract, Story went out and played in 157 games, 160 including postseason. There had always been talk that the Sox were a healthy Story season away from the playoffs, and that sentiment proved correct when he tied his career high in games originally set in 2018.
Trevor Story’s, well, story of the 2025 season is one of a deep valley followed by a consistent peak that never trailed off. That momentum continued all the way through the playoffs, as he was one of the only consistent bats the team could count on as the weather got colder.
Breaking Down the Numbers
FanGraphs just recently dropped their Steamer projections for 2026, which are the first set of projections released as the offseason begins. The projection system factors in injury history and the natural age curve, and thus portends some serious regression in terms of HRs, SBs, and games played for Story.
The projection came in as follows:
100G, 433 PA, .246/.297/.412, 15 HR, 54 RBI, 15 SB, 26.7% K%, 6% BB%, 1.2 WAR
In short, Steamer expects regression but not a full collapse, a version of Story that’s still an above-average regular if healthy.
These numbers are a steep drop from his previous season, but looking at his Baseball Savant page, it adds up. The page is ice-cold, especially in the contact stats. Story ended up 20th percentile or worse in Whiff% (20th, 29.3%), Chase% (12th, 35.3%), K% (12th, 26.9%), and BB% (10th, 5%).
It’s hard to maintain a .263 average or provide $25MM of benefit if you can’t make contact the way Story struggled to last season. Despite these struggles, Story still tucked 25 balls into the seats, largely due to the highest average exit velocity of his career, 91.4 mph, and the highest HardHit% of his career, 47%.
A 25+ SB/HR season is not an unrealistic goal for Story, depending on his health. He can easily be a 2.5-3 WAR player if he stays on the field.
A Smart Move for 2026 and Beyond
One way to potentially ensure clean health going forward is to move Story off shortstop. For every jump throw in the hole, there was another ball he simply couldn’t get to anymore. Story had -9 Outs Above Average (OAA) this year, fourth-worst in MLB for the shortstop position. OAA essentially measures the effective range relative to an average player, or what the expectation is for that play to be made.
Fortunately for the Red Sox, they have a clear, albeit also injury-prone, replacement in Marcelo Mayer. If we assume that the Red Sox bring Alex Bregman back, which many in the industry surmise will happen, playing Mayer out of position will not help his development. Ever since Dustin Pedroia left the Sox, second base has been a black hole, and this season the Red Sox have led the majors in errors at that position.
Story committed the third-most errors at shortstop in baseball, with the majority of those errors being throwing errors. A move to second would take the stress off of needing him to maximize his range, and the throws would be significantly easier to make from game to game. In his lone season at second for the Sox, Story committed six errors, 15th in MLB, and it was his healthiest season up until this one. It was also his best defensive season in Boston by a mile (10 OAA, six Defensive Runs Saved).
Final Thoughts
Ultimately, if we are talking dollars-to-WAR benefit, this can become a bad contract for the Red Sox and speedy if Story can’t stay on the field. If he can, the Sox have secured a clubhouse leader whom Roman Anthony and Mayer have cited as a stable presence throughout the season, along with all the on-field production he’s shown he is capable of. The smart thing to do is move Story over to second base and try to keep him as healthy as possible for the next two seasons.
Finally, I will leave you with a quote from the 310 to Left podcast from Story himself:
“To me, it’s pretty simple. There’s not another organization I want to be a part of. I’m just in love with the place, and got some unfinished business.”
“I came here for a reason, and we’re finally good. I’m not going to leave when it’s time to start skyrocketing.”
“Also, just with the resources that we have being the Red Sox, we know that [the front office] and ownership are going to keep adding to the group. All things considered, it just feels like a rocket ship is about to take off.”
I can’t imagine better words for fans to hear, coming off the season he and the Red Sox had. If 2025 was the redemption chapter, 2026 could be the season that defines Trevor Story’s legacy in Boston. The future feels bright in Beantown, and Story will be an essential piece of their next push for championship glory.
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