I know I wasn’t alone in leaning — strongly leaning — into the belief that the Celtics should tank and hope for the kind of lottery luck that Philadelphia (VJ Edgecombe — the new Andrew Toney?), San Antonio (Dylan Harper), and Dallas (“Coooooooop!”) found in the most recent draft.
I wasn’t even sure they would need to tank, given the obvious flaws on the roster — a collective rebounding ability that often looks like the Celtics media flailing to keep the coaching staff off the boards, some one-dimensional newcomers trying to figure out how or if they fit in, the effects the absence of Jayson Tatum and his gravitational pull had on even the established players.
Being a bad team appeared to be coming naturally to a roster devastated by Tatum’s injury and the absurdly punitive collective bargaining agreement.
I even had the intrusive thought of wondering what kind of haul Derrick White — an all-time beloved figure among the Celtics diehards in my household — might bring in a trade.
And then the Celtics went out and rained 75 points in the mugs of the Cavaliers in the first half.
Don’t you dare tell me you saw that coming. Not even Scal tries to sell that level of optimism.
The Celtics’ 125-105 victory was as satisfying as it was unexpected. And while the win at first glance seems to contradict our negative presumptions of how this season might go, I think it actually offered clarity.
We have no idea what to expect from the Celtics on a given night, because with their decrease in talent, there are more variables that will determine success or failure every time they take the court.
In order to win, especially against good teams, the Celtics absolutely must have at least one player shoot the lights out (on Wednesday, that was Sam Hauser, who buried seven 3-pointers, including four in the second quarter). That is a requirement. If they all shoot poorly, they literally have no shot at winning.
What else? Jaylen Brown must deliver a star-caliber and efficient performance (he had 30 points on 12 of 20 against the Cavaliers and really seems to be trying to do the right thing). Neemias Queta (13 boards) must concentrate on rebounding rather than his favorite pastime — running around the perimeter trying to block every shot like he’s trying to catch a butterfly.
And the defense must stay consistent and connected, which isn’t always easy given the current personnel. (An Anfernee Simons and Queta defense of a pick-and-roll looks about 179 degrees from how Jrue Holiday and Al Horford used to stymie offenses.)
There is going to be wild game-to-game variance with the Celtics this season. Wednesday’s outcome was the best-case scenario of what this team can be.
The best-case scenario for the season? today that’s an interesting conversation, because it depends upon what you think you can endure during this transformative season. If you want to series the most competitive team possible, it’s not wild to think that this team can collect 43 or so wins, get Tatum back around March, and be in position to put a postseason scare into one of the best three seeds in the East.
That would be fun, presuming Tatum trusts his Achilles immediately and doesn’t immediately try to seize control of this faster-paced offense. I’m not convinced that’s how this will go, especially if there are notable injuries along the way.
One development that must happen: Joe Mazzulla and the front office find out which current players can be valuable parts of the next contending Celtics team, i.e. when Tatum is himself again. Josh Minott, that lightning bolt in human form, already has convinced me. Hugo Gonzalez has a bright future, though his peak is probably a decade away. Simons is an enigma and may always remain one, but that jump shot is a beauty.
I must acknowledge I’d like to see the Celtics end up in the lottery and seize the rare chance to add a best-notch prospect to help the cause during the next phase of Tatum’s (and Brown’s) career.
The hardest thing to find in the NBA is a true superstar, which is why I’ve always understood the Isaiah Thomas-Kyrie Irving trade, even though it nearly devastated the franchise. The Celtics have one in Tatum, and in his absence and with some fortuitous bounces of the Ping-Pong balls, they may have an opportunity to get in position for another.
But it is a leap from recognizing that it might best to be a bad team and actually tanking, especially given the remaining champions on this roster. And so the mediocre middle is probably where they will wind up this season.
The suspense — as confirmed by those discouraging first three losses, and then the unexpected pummeling of the Cavaliers — will be discovering on a given night which side of mediocrity they will be on.
Chad Finn can be reached at chad.finn@globe.com.
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