The new polling suggests Wu and Kraft are positioned to advance over their rivals, activist Domingos DaRosa and perennial candidate Robert Cappucci, who have barely registered in public polling. An Emerson College poll conducted in early September showed Wu leading Kraft by a staggering 50 percentage points, while a Suffolk University poll in July showed Wu leading Kraft by 30 percentage points.
That has set the bar sky-high for Wu, meaning a more modest margin of victory could be seen as a sign of weakness for the incumbent. For Kraft, meanwhile, finishing closer than expected behind Wu could bring much-needed momentum to his campaign, even if he still trails her by a significant amount.
“This poll will raise expectations, and we’ll see if she’s able to exceed them or not,” Spencer Kimball, director of Emerson College Polling, said of its new survey. “If she clears the 40-point [margin], that’s a very impressive victory.”
If the margin is closer, it could “weaken her,” Kimball acknowledged — “but it’s not going to weaken her as far as getting reelected in November.”
Kraft, meanwhile, has set expectations of his own. Finishing within 15 percentage points of Wu, he told Bloomberg in August, could help shift perception of the race and persuade donors to get behind him.
Asked recently what would constitute a victory for him on Sept. 9, Kraft defined it broadly.
“Victory just looks like us continuing to get out, listen to people, hear their concerns,” Kraft told reporters.
Finishing 15 points behind Wu “would be a great number,” he added. “But in the end, it’s all about focusing on the residents and their needs. … In every neighborhood, we’ve heard the same issue” about the mayor, he said: “no connection, not listening, city services are neglected. And we need to capitalize on that feeling and that frustration.”
Wu allies are working to manage expectations, too, noting that even a 15-point margin would be a decisive lead for the mayor.
Her lead, supporters say, is all the more notable given all the money Kraft has already spent on the race: In August, he poured in an additional $3.5 million of his own money, for a total of $6.9 million raised, crashing through local fund-raising records. Wu, for her part, has raised $1.9 million this year.
In response to questions about the mayor’s hopes for Tuesday, Wu’s team did not name a number they aim to surpass; instead, they emphasized their final campaign push.
“We’re focused on Tuesday’s Preliminary Election and organizing over these next four days to get out the vote across every neighborhood,” a campaign spokesperson said Friday. “In a moment when our city and our communities are being targeted, Bostonians are sending a clear message that we won’t bow down to tyranny, and we won’t back down from continuing to make progress as the safest, greenest, and most family-friendly city in the country — a home for everyone.”
Both Kraft and Wu have an incentive to shape predictions about Tuesday’s results. Each would benefit from setting the bar low and then exceeding it.
“Everyone plays the expectation games,” said Mary Anne Marsh, a local Democratic political consultant and commentator. Both campaigns can use the recent lopsided poll results as motivation for the final few days, she noted.
“If I’m the Wu campaign, I’m using that to say, ‘They’re going to try to play the expectations game. We need to double down on everything. We can’t take anything for granted. We have the chance to make a statement,’” she said. “If I’m Kraft, I’m like, ‘We need to make this closer than people think.’”
History offers some reference points for how past mayors have performed.
In 2017, his first reelection campaign, former mayor Martin J. Walsh faced a similar field to the one Wu faces today, with just one major competitor, former city councilor Tito Jackson. Walsh beat Jackson 63 percent to 29 percent — a margin of 34 percent — in the September preliminary race. In the November general election, after lesser-known candidates were knocked out, Walsh bested Jackson 65 percent to 34 percent, a margin of 31 percent.
Of course, Jackson had not spent the millions that Kraft has, nor did he have a super PAC spending millions of dollars on negative ads against his opponent.
Here’s another baseline: Four years ago, when Wu was first elected mayor, she beat her opponent, former Boston city councilor Annissa Essaibi George, by 28 percentage points in the general election — considered a landslide. (In the 2021 preliminary election in September, which was crowded with several other serious contenders, Wu won 33 percent support, 10 percentage points more than Essaibi George, her nearest competitor.)
A key question for Kraft is whether he can capture the same coalition that backed Essaibi George four years ago, or even build on it. Essaibi George won her support largely in the city’s more conservative and white neighborhoods, such as South Boston, West Roxbury, and parts of Dorchester. Kraft has also made a point of prioritizing outreach to Boston’s Black communities.
It remains to be seen how Kraft performs with those constituencies, particularly after a challenging week for his campaign. Days before the preliminary election, Kraft parted ways with two of his best advisers, a decision he said was mutual and amicable.
Of course, it’s not just Tuesday’s best line election results that will be illuminating, politicians and strategists said. Detailed precinct-level data will answer other key questions in the race, such as attitudes toward Wu among voters of color.
“The data points are really important,” Essaibi George said in a recent interview. “Elected officials, campaign strategists, policy makers, decision makers look at those results ward by ward and precinct by precinct to understand where people might be discontent with the administration.”
Emma Platoff can be reached at emma.platoff@globe.com. Follow her @emmaplatoff.
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