After Houck posted a 3.12 ERA in 178⅔ innings in 2024, he went 0-3 with an 8.04 ERA in nine starts this year before injuries ended his campaign.
“A tough year for him, tough year for us,” said Cora.
The Red Sox are far from alone among contenders reshaped by injury. The Yankees lost Gerrit Cole to Tommy John surgery in spring training. The Tigers lost Jackson Jobe to the procedure in mid-June. The Astros have been without righthander Cristian Javier all season as he recovers from Tommy John, while hoping he’s able to return for the stretch.
Announcements of season-ending elbow operations are no longer shocking. They reflect concessions to a near inevitability.
Four of the five current Sox starters — Garrett Crochet, Lucas Giolito, Walker Buehler, and Dustin May — have undergone Tommy John. Frequency doesn’t diminish the gloominess of the procedure, but it does at least offer pitchers hope about what lies on the other side of the rehab rainbow.
“[Houck] is a special person, obviously an elite talent looking to build off the season he had last year and try and build off of that to be an anchor in this rotation. Obviously the door’s not closed to that, it’s just a delay in that timeframe,” said Sox pitching coach Andrew Bailey.
“I feel bad for the person, first and foremost. We’ve missed him all year, and wish him the best with rehab and get him back out there as soon as we can.”
Houck joins Kutter Crawford (knee injury, then wrist surgery) and Hunter Dobbins (ACL rupture) as starters whom the Sox have lost for the year. Meanwhile, lefthander Patrick Sandoval — signed to a two-year discount while recovering from Tommy John surgery last offseason — isn’t expected back this year.
Where do those injuries leave the Sox moving forward in the push to get to October? How would they be situated if they get into the playoffs?
Right immediately, the Sox have a true ace in Crochet who lines up against anyone as a Game 1 starter. He’d be followed in some order by Brayan Bello, Giolito, and either Buehler (who gave up 3 runs on 9 hits in just 4⅓ innings in Saturday’s 7-3 win over the Astros — and, for the second time in his career as a starter, didn’t strike out a batter) or May (who, following his acquisition from the Dodgers on Thursday, arrived in Boston and threw a bullpen Saturday in advance of his Wednesday debut).
Since June 10, Sox starters entered Saturday leading the AL in ERA (3.17) while averaging 5.6 innings per start (third). Aside from swing-and-miss maven Crochet, the rotation has succeeded by limiting damage on contact, posting the highest groundball rate in the AL (46 percent) and keeping the ball in the yard (1.2 homers per 9 innings, fourth best).
Crochet has been steadily overpowering. Bello and Giolito, despite modest strikeout rates, have been mostly outstanding the last two months, both posting sub-3.00 ERAs since mid-June. The team believes Buehler and May, despite inconsistency and bad results, have the pedigrees and stuff to improve.
How confident is the team in its rotation for the stretch run?
“Totally,” Bailey said. “You’ve got Garrett, Lucas, and Bello there. You know that Walker has been a dog in the playoffs and, looking for the best version of him still, but confident that he’ll get there. And then adding a guy like Dustin May, who also has some elite stuff and pitchability and some experience [in the playoffs] is huge for us.”
How would the Sox rotation look in a postseason series, when teams would need either three or four starters?
The Rangers (Nate Eovaldi, Jacob deGrom, trade pickup Merrill Kelly, Jack Leiter/Patrick Corbin) and Mariners (Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, George Kirby, with the caveat that Gilbert and Kirby have been inconsistent since returning from injury) have the strongest front fours among AL contenders.
The Blue Jays have a solid best three (Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt), with hopes that someone among the group of Max Scherzer, trade-deadline pickup Shane Bieber, or Eric Lauer could be a No. 4.
The Yankees (Max Fried, Carlos Rodón, then some combination of Walpole’s Cam Schlittler, Will Warren, or Luis Gil), Tigers (Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize, then some combination of Jack Flaherty and deadline additions Chris Paddack and Charlie Morton), and Astros (Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez, then hope for two arms among Spencer Arrighetti, Javier, or Brandon Walter) all have two anchors followed by hope that quantity will beget quality.
The loss of Houck underscores the absence of a true No. 2 — but then again, what Bello and Giolito have done the last two months is comparable to what Houck did early in 2024.
Of course, any exercise in measuring rotation strength in early August with an eye on the postseason is probably a fool’s errand, given the one certainty: Between immediately and October, more pitchers will get injured, and the shape of rotations is subject to change.
Alex Speier can be reached at alex.speier@globe.com. Follow him @alexspeier.
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