Post Game Thoughts: Boston College

photo via @calfootball on twitter

The SP+ rating system has a concept called post-game win expectancy, in which the stats and events from a game are thrown into a blender and tells you how often a team would expect to win that game based on historical precedence.

Cal’s performance vs. Boston College spit out a win expectancy of 49.6%, which to me seems roughly 0.4% too low.

For years and years, as Cal has remained roughly a .500 football team, I’ve talked about close games and coin flips, good fortune and bad, and how the bounces tend to average out to 6-6. Finally, Cal played a game that was as even as even could be. Consider:

The teams didn’t play identically – BC was more explosive, Cal a little better at moving the chains. Cal had more turnovers, but BC’s turnovers were more costly. BC had more penalties, but BC got an extra possession.

You can point to 10-15 different plays on both sides that could have either swung the game in BC’s favor, or made the outcome so much less stressful for Cal fans, but this game was probably destined to go down to the wire either way.

But in a nice change of pace from much of the Wilcox era, Cal found a way to win.

Efficiency Report

8 drives: 3 touchdowns, 2 punts, 3 turnovers (1 interception, 2 downs), 2.6 points/drive.

Removed: Cal’s 2 yard touchdown drive following Hezekiah Masses’ interception and return.

Here’s something very good: every single Cal drive charted above that didn’t end in an interception gained at least 33 yards and at least one first down, and ended at midfield.

Here’s something frustrating and familiar: Cal only turned 370 yards of offensive production into 21 points. Let’s talk about some of that.

Too predictable in short yardage?

The obvious frustration for Cal was two failed 4th and 1 conversion attempts in the 2nd half. This was a nervy game, because Cal actually faced nine total 3rd/4th down plays needing to gain two yards or less. Here they all are, in sequential order (bold=successful play):

• 3rd and 1 – 2 yard run (Raphael)

• 3rd and 2 – 1 yard run (Johnson)

• 4th and 1 – 1 yard run (Johnson)

• 3 and 2 – 3 yard run (Raphael)

• 3rd and 2 – 4 yard pass

• 4th and 1 – 0 yard run (Raphael)

• 3rd and 1 – 1 yard run (Raphael)

• 3rd and 2 – 1 yard QB scramble

• 4th and 1 – 0 yard QB sneak

You can be of two minds about all of this. On one hand, Cal was generally running the ball better in this game than any of Cal’s prior four games, and they had demonstrated an ability to churn out short yardage conversions in the first half of the game in a way that may have given the coaching staff confidence late.

On the other hand, all of Cal’s first half conversions were close things. Cal barely pushed the ball over the end zone in multiple attempts on their 2nd drive of the game, and none of the conversions listed above were particularly easy. BC had guys blitzing into the backfield on pretty much every short yardage play. It was probably a matter of time before they got the push necessary to stop Cal, and it happened twice in the middle of the 2nd half.

My take: Cal is not a good enough rushing offense such that they can reliably gain yardage when the other team expects them to run the ball. True, Cal ran the ball better against Boston College, but some of that was because Kendrick Raphael had a better game (bouncing some runs to the outside when the line was stoned), and Cal found success running off schedule (a 20 yard run on 2nd and 7, 18 and 8 yard runs on 2nd and 10) when the defense wasn’t expecting run.

By the time Cal needed to convert on 4th and 1 late I found myself hoping for play calls that would perhaps catch an over-aggressive Boston College by surprise, rather than what appeared to be pretty basic power run plays.

In praise of good fortune

What was Cal’s best play against Boston College? One viable answer might be Trond Grizzell high pointing a sideline fade downfield. But the more correct answer might be Boston College penalties. Cal’s three long touchdown drives all featured multiple HUGE penalties. Consider the following play-by-play:

• TD DRIVE ONE 3rd and 7: Sagapolutele, Jaron-Keawe pass incomplete deep left to Mini, Mason thrown to BCE03 broken up by Thornton, Omar, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY BCE Pass Interference (rate, KP) 15 yards from BCE24 to BCE09, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

• TD DRIVE TWO 2nd and 12: High, Brandon rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CAL41 (Nwosisi, Onye) PENALTY BCE Face Mask (Nwosisi, Onye) 15 yards from CAL41 to BCE44, 1ST DOWN.

• TD DRIVE THREE 4th and 11: Sagapolutele, Jaron-Keawe pass incomplete deep left to Grizzell, Trond thrown to BCE35 broken up by Farris, Isaiah PENALTY BCE Pass Interference (Farris, Isaiah) 15 yards from CAL34 to CAL49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

All three of the plays listed above were critical plays where Cal was behind schedule and the drive was in immediate danger of failure.

For what it’s worth, I do think that all three calls were correct, though the 4th and 11 PI was marginal and a no-call wouldn’t have surprised me. And this isn’t to suggest that Cal didn’t play their part in earning the penalties – both PIs were catchable throws made by JKS that put pressure on the defense.

But as we covered above, this game was as close to a coin flip as a game ever gets, and when it’s that close you need juuuust enough things outside of your control to go your way. Phew!

Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele-is-the-truth-throw-of-the-week

This is a recurring segment from the Jared Goff days that I should have brought back in week 1. This week’s choice is pretty obvious, no?

How many true freshmen, in a do-or-die drive inside the final 2 minutes, can roll left, tip-toe the line of scrimmage, pump fake, then uncork a perfect strike 25 yards downfield into the arms of his tight end such that it both avoids any defenders but also sets up his man to run after the catch?

For the 3rd time this year a major reason that Cal won a football game was because Cal had the better quarterback on the field. That will likely remain the case for most (if not all) games for the rest of the regular season, and that is the main reason Cal just might go and do something special in 2025.

Efficiency Report

10 drives: 3 touchdowns, 1 field goal attempt (1-1), 4 punts, 2 turnovers (2 interceptions), 2.4 points/drive.

The good news is that Cal’s defense was generally very successful at preventing long, sustained drives. BC couldn’t string together successful plays well enough to keep the chains moving, with just one long scoring drive on their opening series.

The bad news is that Cal, uncharacteristically, allowed two explosive play rushing touchdowns, against a BC team that hadn’t really run the ball effectively yet this season.

Run fit concerns at inside linebacker

Here is the critical moment on Turbo Richard’s first long touchdown run:

And here’s the critical moment on his second long touchdown run:

It’s not fair to pin blame entirely on Cade Uluave for both plays. On the first play, OLB TJ Bush stunts inside and is taken out of the play, and safety Aiden Manutai can’t make an open field tackle in the secondary to limit the damage. On the second play Cal’s OLB Chris Victor crashes too hard inside, Luke Ferrelli gets controlled by a lineman who advances to the 2nd level, and Brent Austin is a little too aggressive coming downhill, taking himself out of the lane to make a touchdown saving tackle.

But on both plays, Cade Uluave appears to have gap responsibility and in both instances isn’t able to get into good tackling position. On the first play he appears to be shaded to the wrong gap so that he’s off-balance when Richard hits the hole, and on the first play he’s too easily erased by a blocker and misses an arm tackle.

As we’ve discussed, Cal is in an enviable position with three qualified ILBs, in a defense that puts a ton of responsibility on the position. Luke Ferrelli had the play of the game to seal a win. BYU transfer Harrison Taggert has been a steady presence and sure tackler. It’s generally a bad idea to overreact to one game (and particularly to two specific plays), but I think it’s not necessarily clear that Uluave is one of the two best ILBs on Cal’s roster right immediately, or at least that he should be a sure-fire every-down player when there are at least three guys worthy of snaps at the position.

Cal’s pass defense won the game

It wasn’t a perfect performance, but facing a competent QB and passing attack, Cal’s DBs won more often than they lost. There was an early sack to end a drive, (spear-headed by Uluave, who is an excellent blitzing ILB), a few throwaways when nobody came open, four broken up passes, and obviously the two interceptions that were two of the three most important plays of the game outside of JKS-to-Mini for the lead. I’m not sure whether this game was a tougher test of the secondary than Minnesota, but either way Cal passed. I suspect a tougher test awaits next week against Duke.

An underrated punt returner skill

BC’s punter had three solid punts with a ton of hangtime that gave Jacob De Jesus no chance to consider a return. But one punt was a bad punt that only travelled 29 yards.

Most punt returners wouldn’t have attempted to catch a punt that short, fearful of muffing the punt on the run headed into a scrum of players headed downfield. But failing to field that punt opens up the possibility of a bounce that makes the punt longer, or even a bounce into a Cal player for a fumble. By quickly moving upfield and catching the ball, De Jesus potentially saved Cal a ton of field position while safely securing possession. Cal wouldn’t immediately take advantage of the field position, but it would keep the ball on BC’s side of the field until Masses’ pick set up a go-ahead touchdown.

A TIGHTLY officiated game

26 penalties were called in this game, and if nothing else I think the refs were pretty consistent in calling juuuust about anything that could have realistically been called. Like, for example, just about any downfield contact that could have been pass interference was called pass interference, much to the deep chagrin of the Boston College crown (though Mason Mini didn’t get one call on a sideline route).

This also led to a number of pretty questionable calls. The unsportsmanlike penalty on Luke Ferrelli was absurd. A critical offensive pass interference on BC led Bill O’Brien to lose a gasket, and I think he had a point, because Cal’s DB initiated the contact that forced BC’s receiver into another Cal DB that created the contact that the ref noticed and called. Of the three holding calls, two (one on each team) looked pretty iffy to my eyes.

Ultimately, I think Cal benefitted from how the game was called, both by volume (4 more penalties for 31 more yards) and by impact, as noted above. Cal gained six first downs to BC’s two, and BC had more offensive drives killed by penalties than Cal.

As is often the case, I am of two minds:

1. Considering the last decade of Cal football, are we in any position to do anything but celebrate a conference win on the road? Let alone a road win that is basically as long of a road trip as a team can make in any conference in the country? After watching how teams making a road trip like that tend to play?

2. If I’m looking to see evidence that this team has the playing ability to do something special with this season, if I’m looking for evidence that Cal’s performance against SDSU was some kind of black swan event or aberration, was Cal’s full game performance indication that a corner has been turned? No, I cannot say that.

Cal has won a coin flip game, and that is cause for happiness. Unless the Bears rapidly improve, the schedule has somewhere between 4 and 7 coin flip games left to play. And we’ve all learned a long time ago that most teams don’t win all of their coin flip games. Justin Wilcox spent almost as much time in his post-game press conference talking about issues with run fits, tackling, and offensive line penalties as he did emphasizing the positives, because he understands how much better Cal will have to be to keep winning games.

Next week brings Duke football to Berkeley, and the initial lines show the Blue Devils as a 2.5 point favorite. That’s close enough that Cal could earn a fortunate win. It’s close enough that the Bears could play better than they’ve shown the last couple weeks and win more decisively.

4-1 (1-0 in conference) looks pretty good. But the tale of the 2025 season will be written based on whether Cal football improves within the season – and if so, by how much?