Boston Red Sox fans are expecting the front office to be aggressive this offseason. Red Sox manager Alex Cora has once again called for it, and Boston’s chief baseball officer Craig Breslow illustrated last offseason that’s capable of it. That’s why a new report suggesting the Red Sox won’t go all-out as huge spenders this winter is surprising.
MassLive’s Sean McAdam reported on Sunday that the Red Sox may be hesitant to venture beyond the $244 million Competitive Balance Tax threshold in 2026, as doing so would allegedly lead to a “moderate financial loss” for the franchise.
Even if you trust McAdam’s reporting, there’s no way to know the validity of the Red Sox’s claim of a potential loss, as the financials for MLB franchises aren’t publicly available.
What you can do is try to connect the dots and figure out how much Boston will actually be willing to spend. The Red Sox’s projected luxury tax payroll currently stands at $223 million, per MLB Trade Rumors’ Nick Deeds. This would leave Boston with $22 million of breathing room below the CBT line and, perhaps more importantly, around $41 million below the second luxury tax line.
Red Sox reportedly placing self-imposed limits on spending this offseason
If the Red Sox’s ownership is genuinely trying to hover around the CBT, that makes the $22 million figure the one to pay attention to, and this would be an ominous development for Red Sox fans expecting a spending spree this winter in the form of guys like Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman.
Of course, there’s always the possibility that Boston sheds salary amidst making additions. Finding a team willing to take on Masataka Yoshida’s exorbitant contract is a popular idea amongst fans, as it would create cap space and remove a player from Boston’s never-ending outfield/DH logjam.
Despite potential salary-shedding moves, though, the Red Sox would still be unable to add two big bats this winter if ownership is truly limiting expenditures in the manner McAdam suggested. Bregman, Alonso, and Kyle Schwarber are each going to demand far north of $20 million AAV on the market. When you do the math, Boston simply can’t add two of those guys if they are worried about hovering around the CBT.
It’s starting to feel like Boston’s more realistic winter outcome is the addition of one big bat (Bregman has to be the priority) paired with a cheaper, though impactful position player. This gives new meaning to the recent Jorge Polanco link from The Boston Globe‘s Alex Speier.
Ultimately, Red Sox fans are expecting more than just Bregman and a role player when it comes to bolstering the team’s offense for 2026. That expectation comes not from entitlement, by the way, but from an accurate assessment of the competitive American League East, which is only getting stronger.
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