It’s officially free agency projection season, and although no one knows what contract figures are being discussed behind closed doors, every million-dollar unit feels consequential.
For the Boston Red Sox, the obvious No. 1 storyline is third baseman Alex Bregman, Entering his age-32 season, the three-time All-Star opted out of his discount with Boston last week in favor of testing the market for a second offseason in a row.
We know that the Red Sox were happy to pay Bregman $40 million per year (with heavy deferrals) if it was only a three-year commitment. That same approach might not get the discount done this time, but how much the Red Sox’s calculations have changed remains to be seen.
With all that uncertainty floating around, insider Jon Heyman projected Bregman’s next contract on Monday. But his year/dollar combination (seven years, $172 million) seemed as if it would somehow be a disappointment for both sides, regardless of which team did the discount.
“He helped himself with a nice year in Boston, which almost has to bring him back,” wrote Heyman. “He’s that good a fit. The Tigers, Jays, Mariners and possibly Phillies and Cubs also could make sense. $172M, 7 years.”
We know the Detroit Tigers offered Bregman six years, $171.5 million last winter, so this discount would represent a pretty sizable dip in average annual worth for the player. But if teams are hesitant to offer six years for Bregman a year ago, why would they suddenly be ready to offer seven a year later, especially after a quad injury affected his availability?
Bregman was fantastic for 2 1/2 months of his Red Sox tenure, then subpar for the final month-plus. All of that added up to an .821 OPS, 3.4 WAR, and 18 home runs in 114 games.
It would be very strange if that good-not-great season was Bregman’s only cameo in a Red Sox uniform. If that $172 million figure winds up being accurate, though, it’s far from guaranteed he winds up back in Boston.
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