He wasn’t available in the postseason, but there’s no shot the Boston Red Sox would have won 89 games this year without the help of Lucas Giolito.
After missing all of last season, plus a few weeks on the injured list in March and April, Giolito found his way back to being a productive mid-rotation starter. He pitched to a 3.41 ERA in 26 starts this year, and more importantly, the Red Sox went 18-8 when he took the mound. Unfortunately, an elbow injury sustained at the very end of the regular season kept him off the playoff roster.
Giolito also triggered a vesting option by reaching the 140-inning threshold, which immediately means he and the Red Sox share a $19 million mutual option for next season. But because he’s probably not going to get many more chances, Giolito seems more than likely to decline that option and head to free agency, which creates an interesting dilemma.
Do the Red Sox tender Giolito a $22 million qualifying offer? They’d be out $3 million extra if he accepted it, but if he declined it, they’d be entitled to draft compensation, the same way they were last offseason when Nick Pivetta left for the San Diego Padres.
On Wednesday, Sean McAdam of MassLive hinted that the Red Sox would likely tender Giolito the qualifying offer, in large part because they’d be comfortable having him back on a one-year offer if he accepted it.
“Giolito represents an interesting case. He made $19 million in 2025 and the QO figure of $22.025 million represents only a modest raise,” McAdam wrote. “The Red Sox, all things being equal, would be comfortable offering that; whether Giolito would accept it or hold out for a longer commitment is an open question.
“The Red Sox said there was no structural damage to (Giolito’s) elbow, but the mere hint of an issue with the elbow — which has undergone tendon transplant surgery twice — may give teams — the Red Sox included — pause.”
The logic here is sound, especially if the Red Sox are as confident as they say they are that Giolito’s injury won’t be a lingering issue heading into next season.
But the ideal situation is probably Giolito rejecting the QO and granting Boston an extra draft pick — which can be a “be careful what you wish for” situation down the road.
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