NCAA Tournament 2024 bracket: Advanced simulation predicts surprising upsets, March Madness picks and sleepers

A double-digit seed has made the Sweet 16 in 15 consecutive seasons and 40 of the last 44, so all eyes will be on teams like No. 12 seed James Madison in the 2024 NCAA Tournament bracket. The Dukes went 31-3 and are riding a nation-best 13-game winning streak heading into their matchup with No. 5 seed Wisconsin on Friday in the 2024 March Madness bracket. Picking a 12 vs. 5 upset is a popular 2024 March Madness bracket strategy, despite 12-seeds having a 53-99 record in those games all-time. Still, last year was just the sixth time in NCAA Tournament history that the 5-seeds swept their first-round games.

Ironically, that did not stop last season from being one of the most upset-laden March Madness brackets ever, as it was the first Final Four ever without a top-3 seed. Should you expect chaos again this year when you fill out your 2024 NCAA Tournament bracket picks? Before you make your 2024 NCAA Tournament predictions, see the March Madness bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has nailed 20 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016 and nailed UConn’s dramatic Final Four run as a 4-seed last year. It went an amazing 22-10 in the first round, including an astounding 12-4 in the Midwest and West regions.

Last year, SportsLine’s computer simulation nailed massive upsets, including huge wins by No. 13 Furman over No. 4 Virginia and No. 10 Penn State over No. 7 Texas A&M. The model has beaten over 92% of all CBS Sports bracket players in three of the past five tournaments.

Now, SportsLine’s advanced computer model has simulated the entire 2024 NCAA Tournament 10,000 times to come up with the perfect 2024 NCAA Tournament bracket and find out which teams will pull off the biggest upsets. You shouldn’t even think about making a pick without seeing what their model has to say.

Top 2024 March Madness bracket upset picks

One Midwest Region surprise the model has identified: No. 11 Oregon knocks off No. 6 South Carolina. Oregon’s quest to the championship in the Pac-12 Tournament included knocking off Arizona, a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament bracket 2024, before defeating Colorado in the Pac-12 final. Oregon defeated the No. 1, No. 3 and No. 4 seed in the Pac-12 en route to winning the conference crown.

N’Faly Dante, a senior 6-foot-11 center in his fifth year at Oregon, was dominant in the Pac-12 final. He went 12-for-12 from the field with 25 points, nine rebounds and three steals in the 75-68 victory over Colorado. He’s shooting 70.2% on the season, including 70% or better in his last six games. South Carolina is coming off a 31-point loss to Auburn in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals and 6-foot-10 Johni Broome had 18 points and 10 rebounds over 25 minutes for Auburn.

Another Midwest Region surprise the model has identified: No. 9 seed TCU defeats No. 8 seed Utah State. The Horned frogs are making a school-record third consecutive appearance in the NCAA Tournament, advancing to the second round in 2022 and 2023. Utah State has lost 10 consecutive NCAA Tournament games, tied for the fourth-longest streak in the history of the tournament.

The Aggies have not won a game in the Big Dance since beating Ohio State in overtime in 2001 and are overrated after winning a Division I-best nine games without a loss in games decided by five points or fewer. TCU is an experienced team, with its top eight scorers being upperclassmen and seven of them being seniors. The Horned Frogs are led by All-Big 12 Second Team member Emanuel Miller, who is averaging 17.7 points per game in road/neutral site games. See which other 2024 March Madness matchups to target here.

How to make 2024 NCAA Tournament bracket predictions

Who wins every tournament-defining matchup? And which teams will make surprising runs through the 2024 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model’s track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you’ll want to see which stunners it’s calling this year before locking in any 2024 NCAA bracket picks.

So what’s the optimal NCAA Tournament 2024 bracket? And which NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine to see which 12-seed reaches the Sweet 16, and which region features a 10-seed, 11-seed, and 13-seed delivering first-round shockers and has a 9-seed in the Elite Eight, all from the model that has beaten 92% of bracket players three of the last five tournaments.

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