One billion dollars later, the first day of the annual free-agent frenzy has come to a close. The NHL’s wildest day of the year did not disappoint with over 100 signings on the books. Now it’s time to pick out the best and worst of the bunch.
Based on the projected surplus value and the general vibe of the deal, here are the five best and five worst free-agent contracts signed today.
Best
Star wingers in Florida
Sam Reinhart, Florida Panthers
Contract: $8.625M x eight years
Surplus value: $3.0M per year
Jake Guentzel, Tampa Bay Lightning
Contract: $9.0M x seven years
Surplus value: $1.2M per year
If you’ve followed along over the years, it should be no surprise that the best two deals of the day belong to elite players. That class of talent is generally underpaid and that remains true for the two newest members of that group: Sam Reinhart and Jake Guentzel. The state of Florida did extremely well here, going way under each player’s projected value.
For Reinhart, the Panthers didn’t have to pay a single cent over his worth heading into last season. That’s a big deal given his 57 goals and fourth-place Selke Trophy finish. That should’ve warranted a massive raise from his previous $8.5 million valuation. Instead, the Panthers have an $11.5 million player locked up at $8.6 million. Must be nice!
As for Guentzel, the Lightning may have been ruthless in their pursuit of him, but there’s no doubt they’re a better team because of it. Guentzel is not just a scorer. He’s also an excellent play-driver and one of the league’s best wingers. Put him on a line with Nikita Kucherov and he genuinely could hit 50 goals while dominating at five-on-five. A $9 million deal may seem like a lot, but Guentzel should have no trouble living up to that.
Smart teams do smart things and this is yet another example of the Sunshine State delivering on that.
GO DEEPER
NHL contract grades: Jake Guentzel is a good fit and good value for Lightning
Matt Duchene, Dallas Stars
Contract: $3.0M x one year
Surplus value: $3.3M per year
Last year’s best free-agent deal returns the exact same: $3 million for one year. Matt Duchene should be able to deliver a lot more value than that, which makes this deal a steal, too.
Duchene proved last season he still had lots of game left — he just needed to be put in a better place to succeed. The Stars’ middle six, flanked by two quality wingers, was the perfect situation for his skill set and that should be the case again next season.
In a thin center market where Sean Monahan was able to command $5.5 million, Duchene playing for just $3 million is a massive bargain. He’s better than Monahan and worth double his new deal.
Anthony Duclair, New York Islanders
Contract: $3.5M x four years
Surplus value: $1.6M per year
No, hell has not frozen over … I am indeed here to praise something the Islanders did.
This team needed speed and scoring in the top six and that’s something Duclair should provide in spades. We saw from his time in San Jose that he’s not a driver in his own right, but his work with the Lightning helped show he can still be a helluva complementary player. He clicked perfectly on the top line with Nikita Kucherov and though it’s not fair to expect him to score at a 72-point pace with the Islanders, a 50-point season feels extremely doable. If he clicks with Mathew Barzal, maybe he even hits 60 — a pace he played at in his first two seasons with the Panthers.
The price for a second-line winger is usually around $5 million. Duclair comes in around that value but is being priced like a third-line winger at $3.5 million. That’s tidy business from the Islanders’ front office.
Sean Walker, Carolina Hurricanes
Contract: $3.6M x five years
Surplus value: $1.0M per year
Big surprise: The numbers like something the Hurricanes did. While new GM Eric Tulsky joked that the team wouldn’t be run by ChatGPT, his first offseason certainly had that flair to it. Shayne Gostisbehere’s deal could fit just as well here, but we’re going to go with Sean Walker, who has the ability to play a bit higher in the lineup and deliver more value at five-on-five.
Walker had a strong renaissance season last year that put him back on the map as a legitimate top-four option. He’s a great puck-mover, something Carolina prioritizes, and he comes in at a solid price of only $3.6 million. The Hurricanes may have given him a lot of term, but it was worth it to get such a low cap hit — one that’s easy to swallow if he regresses from last season.
Viktor Arvidsson, Edmonton Oilers
Contract: $4.0M x two years
Surplus value: $1.0M per year
In terms of fit and price, there were few deals today better than Viktor Arvidsson to the Oilers. One of the key missing pieces from Edmonton’s playoff run was a legitimate top-six forward to play with Leon Draisaitl, one who can drive play at five-on-five. Arvidsson is exactly that, a shoot-first winger who doesn’t need power-play time to deliver above-average value.
The fit alone is great, but it helps that the price and term are both reasonable, too. A $4 million cap hit comes in below his fair value and two years is perfect given the team’s other contract considerations coming up.
Arvidsson comes with some injury risk, but he’s worth the reward.
Few deals were better on Day 1 than the Oilers’ two-year, $4 million signing of forward Viktor Arvidsson. (Yannick Peterhans / USA Today)
Worst
Boston’s big bets
Elias Lindholm, Boston Bruins
Contract: $7.75M x seven years
Surplus value: -$2.4M per year
Nikita Zadorov, Boston Bruins
Contract: $5.0M x six years
Surplus value: -$3.1M per year
I have a lot of time for Lindholm and Zadorov as players, but these contracts feel extremely risky.
Lindholm was a Selke finalist in 2021-22 and if the Bruins were getting that guy, this deal would be a slam dunk. His play over the last two seasons has left a lot to be desired and his most recent work has been especially dire. Maybe he can be salvaged playing with a superstar again, but should a team really be giving almost $8 million for seven years to a guy who obviously isn’t the one driving the bus? Probably not. At 29, a five-year term would’ve been fine while a cap hit closer to $6 million would’ve been more palatable. The Bruins capitulated on both.
With Zadorov, we knew all along the final contract would be too much and too long and that’s exactly what happened. Under the right circumstances, he might have untapped potential as a top-four defender (he’s shockingly good with the puck and plays well with talented defenders), but he hasn’t proven nearly enough to warrant such a massive deal.
The fits for both are strong and it wouldn’t be a shock to see both players find a way to live up to these deals … at least to start. But neither deal feels like it will age well and both seem exorbitant from the get-go.
Chandler Stephenson, Seattle Kraken
Contract: $6.25M x seven years
Surplus value: -$3.2M per year
I have no idea what possessed the Kraken to sign 30-year-old Stephenson for seven years or to give him $6.25 million per season — let alone both. This is an immediate albatross that’s hard to stomach.
Stephenson has a lot of red flags regarding his game, but the main one is that Mark Stone does not play in Seattle. Even if he did, it’s hard to picture Stephenson living up to that price tag in his 30s. He’s an empty-calorie scorer who’s lost a step. With speed being his primary asset, this is a deal that looks ugly on Day 1, let alone seven years from now. Looking at the whole term, Stephenson honestly might not be worth half of what he’s getting.
Joel Edmundson, Los Angeles Kings
Contract: $3.8M x four years
Surplus value: -$2.9M per year
Back in 2019, this might have been a fine deal. But in the year 2024, it feels completely unjustifiable.
Edmundson was OK last year and had a solid bounce-back season after dealing with injuries for a bit — but OK just means he looked like a third-pairing guy rather than completely unplayable. Over a four-year term, the Kings might see that version of Edmundson sooner rather than later. The 31-year-old is unlikely to age well and already doesn’t look like the No. 4/5 he’s being paid to be.
Calling him a No. 6 feels generous and it only gets worse from there. Seeing a similar player in Jani Hakanpaa get $1.5 million on a two-year deal only makes Edmundson’s deal look more perplexing.
Matt Dumba, Dallas Stars
Contract: $3.75M x two years
Surplus value: -$2.6M per year
There was a time when Matt Dumba was a legitimately adequate top-four defenseman, but those days look over. His work in Arizona left a lot to be desired and those hoping he could bounce back on a better team should know he was somehow even worse with the Lightning.
There’s a chance Dumba can bounce back with a strong Stars team in a lesser role, but expecting him to be their No. 4 is expecting way too much out of him. He doesn’t offer much at either end, making this a very expensive reclamation project. At best, Dumba lives up to his deal. At worst, the Stars just lit almost $4 million on fire on a replacement-level player.
Yakov Trenin, Minnesota Wild
Contract: $3.5M x four years
Surplus value: -$1.2M per year
It’s completely on brand for the Wild to sign a defense-first winger. Trenin offers real utility to the Wild’s bottom six and there’s no doubt he’ll be a useful player on that front.
Still, that’s not an asset Minnesota should be paying top dollar for or giving out term to. Trenin is nice, but was four years necessary? Giving that up while paying him $3.75 million per season is far too rich for a forward with limited offensive upside.
(Top photos of Jake Guentzel and Elias Lindholm: Jared C. Tilton and Rich Gagnon / Getty Images)
