Why does everyone think the 2024 Red Sox will be bad?



Two weeks at spring training will yield answers to some questions – such as what kind of animal Triston Casas would be (an orangutan) – but also leads to plenty of new questions.

Here are seven new and not-so-new questions about current and former Red Sox, money, and Seinfeld:

1. Why does everyone think the Red Sox will be bad this year?

Aside from the obvious arguments – they spent way less than the Dodgers and didn’t make a blockbuster trade for Corbin Burnes (Orioles) or Juan Soto (Yankees) – what really makes you think the Red Sox can’t be a good team?

Spending is no guarantee of success. Just look at the Mets and Padres last year, or the Red Sox in ‘22, when they exceeded the luxury tax, only to have an avalanche of injuries bury them down the stretch.

This team’s energy is intriguing. They’re an intensely competitive group, and already seem to have good chemistry; they know the importance of clubhouse camaraderie, and have made it a priority to forge personal relationships with one another. In other words, the kind of crucial intangibles that made a difference for previous Red Sox teams.

It’s also a mostly-healthy Red Sox team. The roster is full of young, hungry talent, and some promising new additions, including Lucas Giolito and Vaughn Grissom. The pitchers have a transformational new coach in Andrew Bailey, who worked wonders with the San Francisco Giants.

Above all, the Red Sox have nothing to lose, because nearly everyone has already decided they’re losers. So why count them out before Opening Day? Allow for the possibility that they may pleasantly surprise you.

2. Will the Red Sox sign Jordan Montgomery?

At this point, there are only two things standing in the way of Jordan Montgomery being a Red Sock: his willingness to be one, and John Henry agreeing to cough up the dough to make it happen.

It’s hard to say which one is a tougher sell, but I’d say the latter, which only makes the Red Sox and their self-imposed, unnecessary spending limits look worse. Sources tell the Herald that Montgomery really wants to return to the defending-champion Texas Rangers, and is still holding out hope for a reunion. Unfortunately for the left-hander, the Rangers seem determined not to incur even steeper luxury tax penalties by bringing him back.

The Red Sox have no such concerns, but convincing Henry to spend money, even if it will lead to an improved team, renewed fan interest, and therefore, an increase in fan spending, seems about as easy as climbing Everest barefoot.

3. Why are the Red Sox so insistent on shedding Kenley Jansen’s salary?

The short answer is also the fairly obvious one: the Red Sox don’t want to spend money.

They’re interested in trading Jansen, and if they could find a team willing to take on the closer’s entire $16 million salary, they likely would’ve already.

Much like the previous question, the thriftiness is confounding. The Sox are one of the wealthiest franchises in the game, but haven’t acted or spent like one in recent years. They’ve taken miserliness to a new level this winter; according to Spotrac, they rank No. 13 in the Majors in luxury tax allocations, and their estimated $179.4 million luxury tax payroll gives them approximately $57.6 million space before they reach this year’s $237 million threshold.

4. Will there be another Sox spring training stud?

Almost every year, a Red Sox hitter puts up enormous numbers in preseason play, then does next-to-nothing when games start to count. Remember Sam Travis? He led the organization with six home runs in spring training 2018. Over his 111 regular-season games with the Sox between ‘17-19, he hit seven.

Bobby Dalbec and Michael Chavis were once top prospects, and finished the ‘21 preseason with seven and six round-trippers, respectively, but neither managed to replicate their production or stick with the club in the regular season. Dalbec even admitted earlier this spring he can’t believe he’s still with the organization.

5. Can Matt Barnes bounce back in DC?

Matt Barnes is getting a second chance in the National League East. Pending a physical, the Washington Nationals will sign the former Red Sox reliever to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training.

Barnes debuted with the ‘14 Sox, and became a bullpen mainstay before struggling in the second half of ‘21 and throughout ‘22. The Sox designated him for assignment and traded him to the Marlins last winter, but he only pitched in 24 games for Miami, and posted a career-worst 5.48 ERA over 21.1 innings.

Throughout Barnes’ nine years in Boston, there were long stretches in which the right-hander was completely unreliable. I attended the six-hour, 19-inning game on Sept. 5, 2017 when John Farrell needed 12 pitchers to defeat the Blue Jays, and still refused to let the right-hander take the mound. The then-Sox skipper felt more comfortable testing Carson Smith, who hadn’t pitched in a big-league game in over a year, for the 18th frame. Barnes also didn’t pitch once in the ALDS the following month.

Almost each year of his Sox tenure, without fail, he’d struggle when the calendar flipped to June and August: a 5.21 ERA over 65 outings in the former, a 7.23 ERA over 81 appearances in the latter.

However, there were times when Barnes was Boston’s best bullpen arm, including the first half of the ‘21 season, when he pitched his way to his first All-Star Game. And when the lights were at their brightest, he dominated, allowing just one earned run over 12 appearances between the Sox’s ‘16, ‘18, and ‘21 postseason runs.

6. Who’s the Red Sox Opening Day starting pitcher?

As of Tuesday, Red Sox Opening Day (in Seattle) is less than a month away. Alex Cora isn’t ready to make an official announcement, but he did say last week the goal is to make sure Brayan Bello is ready to pitch in regular-season games as early as possible, even if that means not letting him take the mound in the Sox’s two games against the Rays in his native Dominican Republic on March 9 and 10.

7. How many Seinfeld jokes will I make now that Jason Alexander is a member of the Red Sox organization?

The Red Sox are signing Alexander, a right-hander who shares the same name as the legendary Seinfeld actor. Cue the content, WooSox social media crew.

Is this guy repped by Vandelay Industries? How will George Steinbrenner feel about this betrayal? Is he good at Frogger? Does he refer to himself in the third person?



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